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PREDICT for estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer had modest discrimination for <jats:italic>BRCA1<\/jats:italic> carrier patients overall (G\u00f6nen & Heller unbiased concordance 0.65 in CIMBA, 0.64 in BCAC), but it distinguished clearly the high-mortality group from lower risk categories. In an analysis of low to high risk categories by PREDICT score percentiles, the observed mortality was consistently lower than the expected mortality, but the confidence intervals always included the calibration slope. Altogether, our results encourage the use of the PREDICT ER-negative model in management of breast cancer patients with germline <jats:italic>BRCA1<\/jats:italic> variants. For the PREDICT ER-positive model, the discrimination was slightly lower in <jats:italic>BRCA2<\/jats:italic> variant carriers (concordance 0.60 in CIMBA, 0.65 in BCAC). Especially, inclusion of the tumor grade distorted the prognostic estimates. The breast cancer mortality of <jats:italic>BRCA2<\/jats:italic> carriers was underestimated at the low end of the PREDICT score distribution, whereas at the high end, the mortality was overestimated. These data suggest that <jats:italic>BRCA2<\/jats:italic> status should also be taken into consideration with tumor characteristics, when estimating the prognosis of ER-positive breast cancer patients.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41523-023-00546-x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,12]],"date-time":"2023-05-12T19:02:09Z","timestamp":1683918129000},"update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["PREDICT validity for prognosis of breast cancer patients with pathogenic BRCA1\/2 variants"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"9","author":[{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5895-1808","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Taru A.","family":"Muranen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Anna","family":"Morra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4185-8882","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sofia","family":"Khan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Daniel R.","family":"Barnes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Manjeet K.","family":"Bolla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4591-1214","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joe","family":"Dennis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5452-9933","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Renske","family":"Keeman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5756-6222","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Goska","family":"Leslie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3242-8477","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michael T.","family":"Parsons","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Qin","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0771-7752","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Thomas U.","family":"Ahearn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Kristiina","family":"Aittom\u00e4ki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4226-6435","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Irene L.","family":"Andrulis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Banu K.","family":"Arun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9714-104X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sabine","family":"Behrens","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Katarzyna","family":"Bialkowska","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Stig E.","family":"Bojesen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Nicola J.","family":"Camp","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jenny","family":"Chang-Claude","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Kamila","family":"Czene","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8023-2009","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Peter","family":"Devilee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Susan M.","family":"Domchek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Alison M.","family":"Dunning","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Christoph","family":"Engel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8482-5784","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"D. 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